According to Luke: On Tea Parties at the Ballot Box
The Tea Party Movement is flexing its electoral muscle in a New York special election that could lay the ground work for the Republican Party’s nominee for President in 2012. New York’s 23rd Congressional District hasn’t been represented by a Democrat in more than 85 years. Parts of the District haven’t been represented by a Democrat since the Civil War, and yet it may be just that, a civil war within the Republican Party that allows a Democrat to recapture the seat.
Washington insiders and party leaders are calling the race a referendum on President Obama and the enormous spending being under taken by Democrats in Congress, pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into each campaign. Moderate Republican Representative John McHugh of New York’s 23rd has resigned his Congressional seat to accept a position in President Obama’s cabinet as Secretary of the Army. Republicans quickly nominated State Legislator Dede Scozzafava. Democrats have selected a political newcomer in Bill Owens and Attorney from upstate New York. However the Conservative Party, upset with the pick of Scozzafava, has nominated their own candidate Doug Hoffman.
Political infighting in the Republican Party has ensued. Conservatives are upset with the pick of Scozzafava, a politically moderate woman with a liberal record on abortion and gay rights. The Conservative Club for Growth has endorsed Hoffman and poured nearly $250,000 dollars into his campaign. In the recent weeks Republicans Sarah Palin and Governor Tim Pawlenty have come out in support of Hoffman, bucking party leaders like Newt Gingrich and Representative John Boehner, who support Scozzafava.
The Conservative Party and the Club for Growth have definite ties to the Tea Party movement in general and the growing ultra-Conservative movement in particular. Both Palin and Pawlenty are thought to be presidential hopefuls in 2012, and could be using this election to better position themselves within that part of their electorate. Gingrich believes between 20-30% of Republicans would vote for either candidate, but that “you need 50% + 1 to win an election,” and they can’t get that support.
That leaves Bill Owens. If the Republican vote is split, it will almost assure the Democrats and Bill Owens the seat. If Scozzafava wins, Republicans will call it a referendum on Obama, but might damage ties with the more conservative part of their party for 2010 and 2012. If the Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman wins, it could be a huge step forward for the conservative Tea Party movement.
Let the conversation begin.
–Luke Inhen
Add comment October 28th, 2009
